General Report on Tunny


25W Page 191

(d) Decibanning a run on its own message and correct wheels.

If δ is to be evaluated from the evidence of the message under consideration only, then where x* is the double bulge on the correct wheels. This is a compact and convenient notion, though until the correct wheels are known, x* is unknown and must be estimated.


(e) Decibanning a run from its own wheel.

To simplify the calculation it is assumed

(i) that a sufficient approximation to the expected δ is that value of δ whose expected is the observed .

(ii) that the distribution of x is normal. This is satisfactory if x << R, a condition satisfied except in key.

It will be convenient, though using the same notation as before, to interpret it more generally by taking Z to be the deviation of a typical double bulge from its mean, , so that the variance of Z will be . Previously we took δ = 0.

Suppose that the wheel is constructed entirely from the run. Then the score, for a single character is
  W10
and the expected score, x, for the whole wheel is
       W11
 
which reduces to W12
where W13
remembering W14
  W15
and eliminating σ, δ from W13, W14, W15
  W16
       W17


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